Dr. Stephen L. DeFelice, M.D.

(Our next president will have a dramatic impact on medical care, medical research and medical discovery. Hopefully, this assessment will be helpful in your considerations)

Current “General” Cultural Dynamics

A).The technology fueled destabilization of traditional values such as family, marriage, sex, religion, patriotism and respect, among others, has led to a tsunami of emotional and financial insecurity where people are increasingly depending on government for help which is why socialism supported by Democrats under the guise of Progressivism is taking hold. B). Coupled with “A” is the use of the internet where we now have an increasingly chaotic Virtual Democracy where everyone, as in a pure democracy, can express their conflicting strong, personal emotions and opinions which are interrelated with insecurity, i.e., hate, fear, a guaranteed government income and others. C). Generally speaking, Biden supports these general cultural dynamics whereas Trump does not. Also, generally speaking, the vast majority of voters have made up their minds. This analysis addresses a) The Trump Silent Majority b) Swing Voters and c) Undecided Voters who have just or not yet voted.

Scale Method of Subject Evaluation

Where appropriate, each category will be evaluated on a 10-1 scale, the first number representing Trump and the second, Biden. When not appropriate, the scale will be enclosed in parentheses. There will be two separate scale quantifications, one without and one with the parenthesis.

The Addressed Categories

POLLS: Before making judgments based on polls, it’s critical that one understands the reliability of them. Very few do! A poll is simply a type of clinical study in which something is measured. A political poll is a social-psychological clinical study attempting to measure certain feelings and opinions of a targeted segment of society. Now it has been objectively demonstrated that social-psychological clinical studies are highly unreliable frequently arriving at faulty conclusions. The reason? Unlike in standard medical clinical studies where not only the design and statistical analysis are acceptable but other similarly studies reproduce the same results, this fails to occur in many social- psychological studies such as with polls. For example, if one medical study concludes that insulin lowers blood sugar, the medical community would require that another similar study be done to support this conclusion. It’s interesting to note that I know of no commonly quoted political poll that has been sufficiently reproduced. “So,” you ask. “What am I to believe?” With certain exceptions, don’t accept the conclusions of these ongoing political polls. They may or may not be valid, but we just don’t know – and that’s what you should believe. The experience with failed former presidential candidate, Hilary Clinton, where the polls almost all indicated that she would certainly win the election against Trump, confirms the fallibility of the poll system. And now to the major rarely mentioned and least understood flaw of the polls: It’s the non-responders or those who refuse to respond to pollsters. I live in the affluent town of Westfield, N.J., where recent election results reveal about a 50/50 Democrat- Republican population. On the lawns Biden-Harris signs are prevalent but, though they may exist, I could not locate a single Trump-Pence one. The same held true in a neighboring town. I contacted a number of Republicans regarding this phenomenon, and their reasons basically boiled down were to avoid the potential violence, as witnessed in some of our Democrat urban cities, of Democrat advocates. Also, and not surprisingly, they mentioned the factor of their privacy. Conclusion: The number of non-responders in polls borders are generally somewhere in the 10% range. Making the reasonable assumption they are primarily Republicans and Trump supporters, such polls would heavily favor Trump. Scale, 10 – 6

Subjects Evaluated

  1. Covid: The virus has dramatically increased our level of insecurity. Trump had the winning card but didn’t play it well. Scale, 10-10
  2. Financial aid: Tough to judge but he got it done. Scale, 10-9
  3. General economy: Trump. Scale 10-5
  4. Race- Little doubt that Trump has made significant inroads on the Black –Hispanic vote the degree and importance of which has been suppressed by the media. It could be a huge factor favoring Trump. Biden’s support of the 1994 bill which put many Blacks in jail is being spread even by Black leaders. Scale 10-9
  5. White suburban female vote: There is little evidence that their anti-Trump mentality has significantly changed though it is a possibility. Scale, 7-10
  6. Corruption-Biden: Little doubt that this huge unknown will favor Trump. If the news just before the election continues it will continue to favor Trump. Scale 10-8
  7. Harris as next president: a) If Republicans raise the possibility of the 25 th Amendment due to corruption where a president because of his criminality can be removed and Harris will become president. Once more, if the scandal continues to escalate, the Harris factor may tilt the scale more toward Trump. Scale, 10-9
  8. Harris as next president: b) Biden’s clear mental limitations are in play the impact of which is not yet highly visible but many- both Democrats and Republicans are aware of this. Scale 10-9
  9. Fracking and anti-oil industry: Biden’s reversal on his anti- fracking past position and his clear anti-oil industry position will lose key voters particularly in the critical Democratic state of Pennsylvania which Trump barely won in the last election. But the message is much broader. There about 10 million jobs (plus family members which should bring it to at least 20 million voters) connected to the oil industry with the average annual salary of $100,000. A huge blunder by Biden. Scale, 10-7
  10. National security: This is a complicated one to assess but, I believe it significantly favors Trump particularly because of the China factor. (See China below). Scale, 10-9
  11. China: Trump has successfully and justifiably labeled China as our number one enemy by labeling Covid as “the China virus”, China’s stealing our technology, China’s taking away millions of American jobs, China’s international expansion and China’s cruel treatment of minorities. Polls and media coverage which importantly support the polling results, overwhelmingly reveal anti-China sentiments. Scale, 10-8
  12. Personality: There’s little doubt that a more calming voice than Trump’s is a plus during these insecure and anxiety-ridden times. Biden’s calmer style has an advantage in certain population segments but he’s not as persuasive as Obama. (As an aside and regarding men, I’m intellectually puzzled by the unequivocal reality that the toughness and roughness of Trump’s doesn’t bother some men but others are sensitive to it). Scale, 7- 10
  13. Amy Barrett-Supreme Court: Trump’s promise to appoint conservative judges, particularly to the Supreme Court, played a major role in the last presidential election. I believe, since Barrett is a woman and for other reasons, it will also play a more important one. Also, because of Barrett, Biden has raised the issue of packing or altering the Supreme Court which the public doesn’t appreciate. Scale, 10-8
  14. Religion: The Democrats are perceived as the anti-religion party while Trump, himself, is perceived as pro-religion. Historically, Protestants were not pro-Catholic but the Barrett selection and her strong Christian religious beliefs and way of life have dramatically energized them to vote for Trump. Protestant religious channels currently praise Barrett attesting to this phenomenon. Scale, 10-7
  15. Absentee ballots which history began during the Civil War and have continued since: To date 63 million citizens, which is rapidly expanding, have voted which leaves about 100 million or fewer remaining voters. Who are these people? Even my Democrat colleagues agree that many of their members actually hate Trump, and such emotions are a force to get out to vote. On the other hand, Republicans have their own reasons to absentee vote. There is also some evidence that young, educated voters, who favor Democrats, are casting absentee votes in record numbers. Most reasonable pundits would give the edge to Democrats. Scale, 8-10
  16. Swing and Undecided voters and Swing States: Trump is highly energized campaigning in these states with huge audiences and most likely will increase voter turnout. Also, this impact of which is rarely evaluated let alone mentioned, local media extensively covers these events which the national anti- Trump media cannot override. Scale, 10-8 (Also, though not sufficiently quantified, it has been reported by pollsters that swing voters tend to factor in personality traits. If the Hunter Biden story escalates this week before the election, it may help swing and undecided voters overcome some of Trump’s negative personality traits.)
  17. The National media’s anti-Trump impact: It’s well known that the national media is anti-Trump. It’s also well-known that the public is aware of this phenomenon. It’s not known how this will impact voter decisions and voter turnout. Scale, 10-10
  18. The last Presidential Debate: Trump touched on many popular topics such as China, the pre-Covid booming economy, the military, our police force, border immigration, benefits to blacks and Hispanics and the Hunter Biden scandal. A clear victory for Trump. Scale, 10-9
  19. Recent polls: They, and importantly, along with other supportive information, have the race significantly tightening. Scale, 10-8
  20. National Media and Biden Scandal during the last week: Will they routinely cover the Hunter Biden scandal or play it down? It depends upon the facts. If the scandal continues to grow and is generally true, they can’t play it down because audiences of all political types will turn to conservative outlets for the news which favor Trump and will sway a certain number of key voters to vote for Trump. (Scale, 10-8)
  21. The contested election, Amy Barrett and when to finalize the Electoral College vote: There is the definite possibility that the election will be contested and be adjudicated before the Supreme Court where it will be decided where to draw the time- line regarding the final Electoral College vote count as was done with Bush-Gore presidential controversy. Barrett will play a key role. (Scale, 10-10)

Total Scores

A. Without parentheses – Trump, 192, to Biden, 169 B. With Parentheses – Trump, 20 to Biden, 18


The Scale evaluation indicates that, though favoring Trump, it’s a close race. If the Hunter Biden scandal escalates during this last week, it will be a significant factor in supporting the Trump vote and victory.